Goa Assmebly Elections 2017: Counting Chickens

Political analysts and citizens, who follow politics in Goa, are beginning to second-guess their predictions of the forthcoming 2017 assembly elections. It is anyone’s ballgame, especially after the surprise result of the Kautilya Survey that has further confused people.

Here are the top stories that may directly or indirectly make or break situations for respective parties in Goa’s political scene.

BJP + MGP Alliance

MOI is not the only issue that has led to the falling out between the two parties. Relieving of Shri Pandurang alias Deepak Dhavalikar off the Cooperation Portfolio in 2015 has not gone well with MGP. Sources reveal that even the working president of MGP seems inclined to go alone in the next assembly polls, at least as of now.

The MGP and BJP alliance is come into question with the general elections nearing and the growing mistrust is visible between the two allies.

MGP member and MLA of Ponda, Lavoo Mamledar has been quoted stating that the party (MGP) should be ready to contest on its own in the 2017 assembly polls, if need arises, and BJP state president Vinay Tendulkar has remarked on MGP having double standards in the Medium of Instruction (MOI) issue.

Sudin Dhavalikar questioned Vinay Tendulkar’s accusation but did not criticise the BJP since he is a part of the Parsekar led-cabinet.

 Read more about it here. 

Congress (No CM Candidate)

Internal conflicts regarding the chief ministerial candidate and the loss of confidence amongst the public will be a great challenge that the congress has to overcome.

While the congress were a strong choice for Saxittikar voters (largely Christian) earlier, the entry of AAP and a possible formation of Goa Forward has divided their votes and further decreased the stronghold that the congress once had.

“The chief ministerial candidate cannot be decided by Goa Pradesh Congress Committee or any individual. Post election, the Congress legislative wing will decide who will be their leader,” Congress Goa unit chief Luizinho Faleiro told reporters.

Goa Forward, AAP & Kautilya Survey’s Impact

The Kautilya Theertha pre-election survey, which has the largest sample size ever reached by an independent media agency of Goa with 80,000 respondents, has revealed surprising facts in its results and may be a catalyst in what is to come.

According to the survey, AAP (without any popular choice from the party) is said to win 14 out of 40 seats (10 in the South and 4 in the North) and would be the single largest party in comparison to the others. Also, if the Goa Forward would be formed, 5 of the 10 seats that AAP are said to win would be divided between the two.

The outcome of this survey, however, has been criticised by many on its process and the confusion it has spread amongst the public.

Read Sandesh Prabhudesai’s take on the authenticity of the Kautilya Theertha pre-election survey.

Prudent Media Survey

The survey conducted by Prudent Media (local goan cable news channel) in association with Goa University, confirmed what the Kautilya Survey had released, with slight variations. There is certainly a wave of shock that is spread among politicians, analysts and public at large. The unexpected is prevailing.

According to an article on quint.com, which analysed the aforementioned survey, if the elections were to be held now, the BJP may lose majority. To have majority in Goa, a party requires to secure 21 seats, which is the exact tally that the BJP have now. But that would not be the case, if people voted now, as the survey predicts the ruling party to secure only 17-18 seats.

In the Kautilya Survey predicted AAP to secure the 14 seats, Congress drop down to 7 seats and MGP double their hold to 6 seats.

It also painted a different outcome of what would be of the AAP, MGP and Congress in comparison to what the Kautilya Survey revealed. MGP is said to be unchanged by securing 2-3 seats, Congress would increase their hold in Goa with securing 12-13 seats and the AAP would get 4-5 seats according to them.

 

Several more stories may affect the result, and we want you to share those stories with us in the comment section below or mail it to us on info@chronicler.in. There are roughly 6 months to go for the general elections in Goa, too early to count chickens according to us, what do you have to say?

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